| 茅台转战电商，白酒江湖或将生变？ |
| 时间：2022-04-07 17:18:14 点击： 次 |
| <p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(169, 168, 168); --tt-darkmode-color: #A4A3A3; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px;">作者/星空下的锅包肉</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(169, 168, 168); --tt-darkmode-color: #A4A3A3; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px;">编辑/菠菜的星空</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(169, 168, 168); --tt-darkmode-color: #A4A3A3; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px;">排版/星空下的陈皮</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 14px;">小长假归来，接着聊聊节前发生的大事。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 14px;">3月31号，茅台<strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="2eac7aa409e82d9ea5a9627d6a2d2c0e" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="9756b7231bf4e08f178b682fcbd29617" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">专属APP</span></strong>——i茅台正式上线。当日申购开放了四款产品：</span></p><ul data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="3c4d0fbdb23a3d6fe842305b4574aaba" class=" list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: none;"><li><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 14px;">53度500ml贵州茅台珍品4599元/瓶；</span></p></li><li><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 14px;">53度500ml贵州茅台虎年生肖酒2499元/瓶；</span></p></li><li><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 14px;">53度375ml*2贵州茅台虎年生肖酒3599元/盒；</span></p></li><li><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 14px;">53度500ml茅台1935定价1188元/瓶。</span></p></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px;"><br/></p><p><img src="https://pics5.baidu.com/feed/b3fb43166d224f4aede616aef143b4589922d14b.jpeg?token=fc6b9eccec029d04281f00c89418a322" width="640" class="index-module_large_1mscr" style="border: 0px; width: 656px; border-radius: 13px;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px;"><br/></p><p class="pgc-img-caption" data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); border: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">来源：i茅台APP</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px;"><br/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px;"><br/></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 14px;">其中2499元的虎年生肖酒极其受欢迎。因为市场流通价已经炒到了3500-4000元/瓶。抢到就是赚到。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 14px;">从结果来看，大家也确实没让茅台失望，全民参与。虎年生肖酒总申购人数高达2205509人。总投放多少呢？8934瓶。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 14px;">1：247的概率，堪比国考。这一千块差价赚的也确实不太容易。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 14px;">既然抢也抢不到，那么茅台是想干嘛？新的宣传噱头吗？没这个必要吧？但若非如此，那么茅台为什么要搞出一个线上APP，来重挫线下经销商？</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 14px;">这一举动背后，茅台究竟在下一盘什么棋？五粮液会跟吗？白酒江湖会变吗？</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">一、自营电商，为提价增产蓄力</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">乍一看，茅台这个行为，确实让人相当不解。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="964f31cbfa2f082dc95ec958e813de45" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">以飞天为例（飞天不在本次申购之列，只是以此为例，方便说明问题），价格炒到2000-3000不好吗？又不影响茅台自身的利润。而且还能帮助提升茅台酒的</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="57a31ad25a6e6d9bdebdc782ec22d57b" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="01311408faf48ad4eeda8c44d97bc94d" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">高端形象</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="5b6108e2403b8a554a7fd86d2f20a7d5" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">。为什么要做自营电商，把价格</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="58874a11371c170e4e42c0ad9d634e83" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="479681c288d938949dc0ae23fa21bb85" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">打下来</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="3cf55b06052a058b0ee76b26296636e7" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">？</span></span></p><p><img src="https://pics1.baidu.com/feed/58ee3d6d55fbb2fb5e029463b3fe04ae4723dcd1.jpeg?token=6da67c9a8c1c1c63ba3bdb19dfa01124" width="640" class="index-module_large_1mscr" style="border: 0px; width: 656px; border-radius: 13px;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px;"><br/></p><p class="pgc-img-caption" data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); border: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">来源：趋势财经视讯</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px;"><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="9bc541e3b5d8b33091400ed1e65229ab" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); text-align: justify; max-width: 100%;">而且，飞天在经销商手中能卖两三千，但是在茅台手中只能卖1499。虽然看似相较于969的出厂价，还是多赚了55%。但是自营，还得承担</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="c65feffc385cbec231e4e460904b80b8" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); text-align: justify; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="3bc1ce6c1d2a0569027b37c3d632abb3" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">自营</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="118e2d3e46d0a3ce4e54334c391faade" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); text-align: justify; max-width: 100%;">的</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="3a4f18f56598b444c059a51d1ff20363" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); text-align: justify; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="be7c16f7b0351a1b43b49834ee4368eb" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">成本</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="1e8dad51f00545593c70c413a7973200" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); text-align: justify; max-width: 100%;">。综合算下来，真的比直接卖给经销商划算吗？</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">与此同时，又损害了经销商的利益。这种搬起石头砸自己脚的事，茅台为什么要干？不要说是为了消费者，如果真这么良心，就不会赚着90%+的毛利率了。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="cc1376ff0f396aa3c8ee79adb65df445" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="0af3c8c28e965694d33135188c30494c" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(79, 109, 155); --tt-darkmode-color: #4F6D9B;">1、</span></strong><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="16b141ae5d91bd5bde9e5b99116dbe4c" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(79, 109, 155); --tt-darkmode-color: #4F6D9B;"></span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="4e325c510739d0da7736b5eeb07f617e" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="5f1587f0c314e217a8e837b05b7554a9" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(79, 109, 155); --tt-darkmode-color: #4F6D9B;">长远来看，自营电商背后是提价的野心</span></strong></span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="6bb35200b4b722c4abfa976f6ce413a2" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">唯一合理的解释，就是茅台布局自营电商，是在为继续</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="a9b23370aef4ef410c14a2f6080141c4" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="2eb4131728ff16522729ba55e9e5d986" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">提价蓄力</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="c689c9e0f21e3b6d282cdd3ece1d9643" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">。</span></span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">传统经销渠道，茅台涨价，获利最大的是经销商。自营电商的模式下，茅台涨价，则是把出厂以及直销环节的利润，都抓在了自己手里。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">试想一下，如果有一天，飞天价格继续翻倍。出厂价涨到2000，市场指导价涨到3000。那么，在现有模式下，市场流通价会飙到多少？5000？</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">站在消费者的角度，价格已经逼近可接受上限了。但是茅台能增加多少利润？2000-969≈1000块/瓶而已。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="7c6f625460642ee0c85fba74674b4024" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">但是，如果加大自营电商比重，茅台出厂价可以多赚1000，电商渠道还能按照3000卖。而且这个价格也不会过度损害经销商的利益。</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="79b132574dfb9571197ed2cefb793b47" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="a390cce693d2ac217093b8e579cbab79" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">一石三鸟</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="a01b342a5ac92ede5b56355a0e75d635" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">。</span></span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="267f61442a85db557c147db1be96607e" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">由此可见，只要茅台还想涨价（或者是</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="2fdc5ddabd690f085acb13fac2b40247" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="bba442b2760b33f086cf31a33e07d31c" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">变相涨价</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="06042b05c3eff67bfcbdf4ae1861df1a" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">，卖一些更高端的酒），就不会放弃自营。涨的越多，自营的利润越大。</span></span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="834f21784aaa9dc240b275ed531a1f46" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">而且，看似茅台自营电商，冲击了经销商。但只要价格涨的够猛，茅台和经销商就能够</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="35a8c5772308866a493ecd98d1078f75" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="f7bcb785a3f1983536a2709dcabe3ac5" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">双赢</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="68f22099394ee45440b04db5de4402eb" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">。羊毛都出在羊身上。</span></span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="72120f3ddf36f0252f47b5ca15d4b67d" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="c23396c263893fddcddfcfe009eabd43" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(79, 109, 155); --tt-darkmode-color: #4F6D9B;">2、</span></strong><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="116baad0fc47986955d3d2f67cb81f65" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(79, 109, 155); --tt-darkmode-color: #4F6D9B;"></span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="1cac5d2ad9bfe4d3ee5bf23efe188e96" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="c5ce860fbaad6f132b516d501be1216f" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(79, 109, 155); --tt-darkmode-color: #4F6D9B;">当下来看，新增产能可助力直营</span></strong></span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="7e8d764b658c1e06250b42290575b320" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">不过，自营电商能不能起到它应有的作用，还得看它能有</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="9945b1dd78d100e9cd598a38468214d4" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="46afe3bd3e0830cf3cdc7758913d4ae2" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">多大的能量</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="425553762626992f27074d81cdd6c06e" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">。</span></span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">比如本次，开放申购的虎年生肖酒，一共不到9000瓶，算下来大概也就4吨左右。而2021年茅台酒（不包括系列酒），年销3.6万吨。4吨的投放无异于杯水车薪，对整个市场基本起不到什么作用。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">同样，对经销商也构不成多大冲击。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="fae4581e91b7dec64727ced9c49cfb84" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">但是，如果拉出茅台这些年的产销数据就会发现，茅台选择</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="56dfcefa05bca30966dabd6b18cb7a40" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="08c5351b09ca8a717f3e922f6559e286" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">自营电商</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="cec68585c8ef2f914639cf8063e81c47" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">这个</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="d013b788c4e26262fc4898e5ae6210b5" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="decc99895e9447191eed045097d700ed" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">时间点</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="67db39632e1209cac9a1c6c120fce5a2" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">，很有意思。接下来，自营电商很可能会成为</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="c1cdf5113608f51377d6747ed374d2f4" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="7bf2644836e1c26d2275dd5e54437ee9" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">重头戏</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="cc582b82f372865a15fc489c260ede78" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">。</span></span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">按照茅台的生产工艺，当年生产的基酒，要先存三年，再兑一定比例的老酒（8%-20%），然后再存一年，再对外销售。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="db461c8dc749ec5711d6a5015ece5e3a" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">所以，</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="2d8dcc2224a0962168ab02c1c9fb3254" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="823fcf91ac0d789d3ab6add7c5742827" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">4年</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="83db403be32929a836f89823c3fbe3e0" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">前的基酒产量，基本上就决定了4年后的成品酒销量。</span></span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">而2018-2021年，茅台基酒（不包括系列酒）产量增长明显。所以2022-2025年，预计可供销量将大幅提升。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px;"><br/></p><p><img src="https://pics0.baidu.com/feed/9a504fc2d56285352fee436a655b52cca6ef63aa.jpeg?token=2b1e3c9c81dbc31e80998aecbb1073dc" width="640" class="index-module_large_1mscr" style="border: 0px; width: 656px; border-radius: 13px;"/></p><p class="pgc-img-caption" data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); border: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">来源：公开数据，2022-2025年销量是按照基酒产量85%估算</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="197e475815ad6f66ca00727cff82b92c" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">从数据来看，2022年，茅台酒预计将增加近6000吨。到2025年，累计将增加</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="dfbd9f55a9ca589b187b78a0aedbf93c" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="56efdc65ed2dca31dcde899dd7c675be" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">1.1万吨+</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="5dcd783a62a1ba50adc731fad75741f0" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">。这可不是小数字，占年销量20%以上。</span></span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">试想一下，如果要发展自营电商，是把经销商手中的配额抢回来容易，还是直接把新增产能给到线上更简单？</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px;"><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="b2e4e8b1abec5d6ac6dc4be94d7b0596" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); text-align: justify; max-width: 100%;">如果把经销商配额大量收回，那么必然重挫经销渠道。茅台业绩将面临</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="9e7e60cd46c9262bc318c4289fdaa576" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); text-align: justify; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="a2c240e31bb8693d4f9ac25f6f585f64" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">短期阵痛</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="865cc9a02f825132b8490a9102f27e82" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); text-align: justify; max-width: 100%;">，甚至长期低迷的风险。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">但是当下，茅台有大量可预见的新增产能。在这个时间点上线自营电商，第一，能够把经销渠道的伤害降到最小。第二，可以借助新增产能更轻松的做大直营。第三，还能把这部分增量，卖个好价钱。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="db66483e67d4212c7ac5160c607c3de2" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">茅台的如意算盘打的非常响。接下来几年，很有可能实现</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="a175701584f3d83f956b53d2efe586e9" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="47c6124fa9bdb752bedd831807cb803e" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">量价齐升</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="8b09b96612d323ba682ecf0c292d7b94" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">。</span></span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">二、量价齐升，五粮液或难效仿</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">那么茅台的筹谋，五粮液能否效仿？</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">答案是，很难。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">如果茅台继续提价，打开高端白酒的定价上限，五粮液大概率会紧随其后。但是在自营电商这个问题上，五粮液不太可能倾注全力。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="051f64f6f033ad5d90b70eca66b65de1" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">其实严格来讲，</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="e54c78d65b02c0cce73915040a8efb08" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="c5ae9663da27bc12ab63063c6445340e" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">五粮液</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="3eec0f212732dd986699c0ae7e5358d1" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">早就涉足了自营电商。只不过不是自己开发APP，而是借助京东、天猫、酒仙网的</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="0fa4d38041fe67f475c860965e7ae4ec" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="e43f0356815863917d81467c2d067583" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">第三方平台</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="852e33510d971086d6fe1531ee671eba" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">。</span></span></p><p><img src="https://pics7.baidu.com/feed/4b90f603738da9770a6b0fe744e5dc138418e3f1.jpeg?token=b9d17f9da0df69f99fc22838eb962640" width="640" class="index-module_large_1mscr" style="border: 0px; width: 656px; border-radius: 13px;"/></p><p class="pgc-img-caption" data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); border: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">来源:iFinD</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); text-align: justify;">那么问题来了，茅台为什么非要自建APP？因为茅台要靠自营电商与传统经销渠道分天下，所以不太可能把资源流量，放到一个随时可能受限的三方平台上。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="31cdc5e79a31c3e727b922d4bb80b8bf" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">同样的道理，反过来再看</span><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="c4cbffc2f60dec02be127e1a7d299893" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(60, 52, 54); --tt-darkmode-color: #AA9FA2;">五粮液，一直依靠三方平台</span><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="1e4df45edb59353987dd6616df8d9bbd" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">，也就意味着，自营电商对于五粮液，并没有那么重要。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px;"><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="51c1832b6600c7ef8ac563c909d27aaa" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); text-align: justify; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="6e07920e86755e6ba5c41332cff48867" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(79, 109, 155); --tt-darkmode-color: #4F6D9B;">1、</span></strong><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="4c83a6cd1c734df69b150ac33c5e063e" style="font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(79, 109, 155); --tt-darkmode-color: #4F6D9B;"></span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="a4242c102efe509b26ac7cd9706ec13d" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); text-align: justify; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="e411b5f1d456f9664c8994b5b86bfbd2" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(79, 109, 155); --tt-darkmode-color: #4F6D9B;">五粮液的优酒产能跟不上</span></strong></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">因为五粮液和茅台不同，它的高端酒，并没有多大的新增产能（相关阅读：扶不正的五粮液，追不上的茅台），甚至于总产能也就2.9万吨。而茅台酒这几年的增量就有1.1万吨。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="ec8c9b61c1e17fefd4b3855cf5138627" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">这就意味着，五粮液如果加码自营电商，要么</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="574d17939dcb29468c2db628b70795b3" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="0b1cf3ae6ef51cc0d4484a0d4b948d86" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">抢经销商</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="209425cda7db69fae4f6c20b28483ee9" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">的优酒配额，要么</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="bfce2599e044b4024d062fead7c8c7e7" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="62e42f3180e56c367d7ef0272f0c5dad" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">卖低端</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="37c0d252b65eb977e230df34bcf45479" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">系列酒。</span></span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">若选第一条路，必然重挫经销渠道。而若卖低端酒，大概也没多少利润空间。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">前面我们提到过，茅台为什么要发展自营电商？因为高端酒可以继续提价，酒卖的越贵，自营赚的越多。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">而五粮液系列酒毛利率只有58%。再扣掉自营成本，吃力不讨好。</span></p><p><img src="https://pics5.baidu.com/feed/3812b31bb051f819ce6c94a227006ee72c73e7c8.jpeg?token=07cbaed1497522c6b3a66adb683813d9" width="640" class="index-module_large_1mscr" style="border: 0px; width: 656px; border-radius: 13px;"/></p><p class="pgc-img-caption" data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); border: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">来源：五粮液2021年半年报</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="cdc4691ba898fd47f931c93d3cc127f6" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="4ae4d8fab694d2a0a2d34fba029ad56d" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(79, 109, 155); --tt-darkmode-color: #4F6D9B;">2、</span></strong><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="4c7f6fc6d308b158664eeb1e2431026f" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(79, 109, 155); --tt-darkmode-color: #4F6D9B;"></span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="66d6812a7e865caf2aece2b429ac9381" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="4fcee4d269a40aa3486f281cde05f920" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(79, 109, 155); --tt-darkmode-color: #4F6D9B;">五粮液终端销售不畅</span></strong></span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">另外，即便产能不是问题，销售也成问题。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">茅台飞天，市场哄抢，流通价能炒到3000。但是五粮液的普五，对标飞天，厂商指导价已经调到1499。但京东售价只有1200元上下。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px;"><br/></p><p><img src="https://pics3.baidu.com/feed/c995d143ad4bd1130c4ec22e501a80054afb056d.jpeg?token=5fa5b17ded0caefa31ab32086baab6a7" width="640" class="index-module_large_1mscr" style="border: 0px; width: 656px; border-radius: 13px;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px;"><br/></p><p class="pgc-img-caption" data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); border: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">左图来自京东官方店，右图来自京东自营店</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">也就是说，五粮液的自营电商，还得考虑能不能卖出去，能不能卖上价，以及，自营模式增加的利润，能不能覆盖成本？</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">权衡之下，借助第三方平台，或许是最佳方案。虽然会被三方平台分润，也不能完全自主可控，但是能够保留住一部分，未来因白酒提价而带来的利润增量。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); text-align: justify;">只是这样的自营电商，只能充当五粮液的一个销售渠道，绝非重心。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">三、预期发展，且看历史是否重演</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="d082fa2ba759750656f7601cca7fa117" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">茅台和五粮液，两种不同的渠道选择，也说明了一个问题。高端白酒涨价势在必行，五粮液坚守老路，利润增量仍然主要来源于出厂价的提升。而茅台重心逐渐向自营电商偏移，则更有可能收获出厂价+市场价提升的</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="3be8d4336de46b331cb8ca5dcf21feda" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="2656fa6634f1e4904e835c20be1d9266" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">双重收益</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="d7e6381177dbd34acb5213f56c94b3ce" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">。</span></span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">不过，茅台搞自营电商，也不是第一次了。能不能按照预期发展，还得画个问号。</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="def7811b4b62e41237cf72ddd44ab66a" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">早在2014年，茅台就曾投资设立了一个</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="86d4174e4eeaae5086bce8a9a8a6a183" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="028855f856062900d90640c8d1e5d3fa" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">电商公司</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="fafb7aa993384727fb5b73e8f6358d9b" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">。但是5年后，以</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="26730fab3959bd1c7f6f35f2d51a3ac6" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="419eae810ab3a9e838eda957a875738f" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">解散注销</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="a66c8227a6bd30638541c359e6eddb28" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">而告终。</span></span></p><p><img src="https://pics6.baidu.com/feed/b999a9014c086e06665d8f65f9bc5ffe0bd1cb62.jpeg?token=a98521e70fd726cad5b346dc64f93b49" width="640" class="index-module_large_1mscr" style="border: 0px; width: 656px; border-radius: 13px;"/></p><p class="pgc-img-caption" data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); border: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">来源：茅台2014 年度第五次会议决议公告</span></p><p><img src="https://pics1.baidu.com/feed/3812b31bb051f81972cacf3e20006ee72f73e713.jpeg?token=db1c19e58275661be2fccb8eac86e7fb" width="640" class="index-module_large_1mscr" style="border: 0px; width: 656px; border-radius: 13px;"/></p><p class="pgc-img-caption" data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); border: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">来源：茅台2019 年度第九次会议决议公告</span></p><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="a6480049c2895876b2758caa0db56cdc" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">究其原因，往小了说，是因为黄牛聚集经销商窜货。往大了，是因为茅台的销售渠道，象征着</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="45a97ef2494217e089cb8abbbafc6070" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="c520a727188b57db31b3574ea0d1971c" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">利益</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="2c53b425434b35bda3066fb1e6c9a228" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">。而有利益的地方，就容易</span><strong data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="06888f44cb8b7c5714292b867a0abcb8" style="max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="67161a64ca5c0148c43b08295c1c739c" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); --tt-darkmode-color: #FF0C00;">滋生腐败</span></strong><span data-fake="1" data-diagnose-id="bda22c8113324656b01c3ebe15db2599" data-from-paste="1" style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%;">。</span></span></p><ul data-from-paste="1" data-diagnose-id="ba47e3d3774e0fa7687492c147eef00d" class=" list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: none;"><li><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2018年，茅台电商董事长聂永被撤职，2019年5月被批捕；</span></p></li><li><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2019年，茅台电商原副董事长、总经理肖华，涉嫌受贿被调查；</span></p></li><li><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2019年，茅台电商系列酒原负责人王静，涉嫌受贿被逮捕。</span></p></li></ul><p data-from-paste="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow-y: auto; max-width: 100%; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">如今i茅台上线，且看类似的历史，是否还会重演？</span></p><p><span style="box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(165, 165, 165); font-family: "Microsoft Yahei", Avenir, "Segoe UI", "Hiragino Sans GB", STHeiti, "Microsoft Sans Serif", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 10px; letter-spacing: 1px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">文章来源：《星空财富》，<span style="box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">发布此信息的目的在于传播更多信息，与本站立场无关，</span>如</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(85, 85, 85); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(165, 165, 165); font-family: "Microsoft Yahei", Avenir, "Segoe UI", "Hiragino Sans GB", STHeiti, "Microsoft Sans Serif", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 10px; letter-spacing: 1px;">涉嫌侵权，请联系删除。</span></span></p> |
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